The Gambler
Is the opening verse of Kenny Rogers hit song The Gambler a metaphor for cosmic evolution?
"Every gambler knows, That the secret to survivin', Is knowin' what to throw away, And knowin' what to keep."
Harmful mutations are thrown away by natural selection, while beneficial ones are kept through self-replication. It is the secret to survival! And, the whole thing works on Bayesian probabilities, just like gambling.
The Gambler represents Kenny Rogers' theory of everything based on Universal Bayesianism. He was a true visionary.
This page is not about Kenny Rogers hit song The Gambler, it is about how all of belief, faith, science, neurons, and reality are based on probability, like the song says.
What is Most Likely?
When it comes to the unknowable and unverifiable things in life, like supernatural beings or the subjective experience of the afterlife, you can either fold your hand like an agnostic or go all in on the version of reality that you think is most likely to be true.
When you view these decisions in terms of "what is most likely?" as opposed to "what can be proven beyond any doubt?" it makes it much easier to come to a decision, place your bets, and move on with your life.
It is also important to decide what is truly relevant to your life choices. It is easy to get lost in the information overload. Call the bluff of pseudoscience, grift, conspiracy and materialism so you can bet the farm on best practices.
Everything is a Probability
Be it quantum mechanics, evolution, or the neurons that control our behavior, the universe operates on probabilities.
Universal Darwinism or Universal Bayesianism refers to an emergent unified theory of reality based on Information Theory that proposes a universal genetic algorithm for the accumulation of knowledge through the process of self-organization, from a subatomic level, to evolution and DNA, all the way up to intelligent human brains and cultures.
All knowledge has uncertainty. There is no truth for which you can be 100% certain while remaining intellectually honest. Gödel demonstrated that there can be no universal rule for determining what is true. Philosophers throughout the ages have proven time and time again that our subjective perception of reality cannot give us objective answers.
Therefore, we must evaluate what is most likely to be true, place our bets on that, and move on to more important things.
For an excellent primer on thinking probabilistically, and how to avoid the pitfalls of our natural inability to do so, read Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Faith is What You Bet On
The concept of faith is simply where you place your bets. In the realm of uncertainty, you must decide what you think is most likely and place your bet on that. This is what faith is, at least in this context.
The Probability of Manifestation and Karma
Read about Stochastic Manifestation and how we can increase the chances of our dreams coming true, even if we can't guarantee them.
Karma works on a similar probability principle.
The Gambler Meets God
As a gambler, what is more likely? Where do you place your reality bet?
- Every culture in history has independently had contact with different supernatural beings that formed the basis for their religion.
- Every culture in history has independently had contact with the same supernatural god that has taken different forms in different times and places, forming the basis for religion.
- Every culture in history has made up stories of supernatural beings with no basis in reality, creating religion strictly as a means of social and political control.
- Every culture in history has made up stories of supernatural beings, except for one culture (yours) that was actually visited by a supernatural being and given the correct religion.
- Every culture in history has observed the same reality and universe that we all exist in, and attempted to create a creation story using allegory based on their observations. It is intended to convey the wonder and beauty of existence as a conscious being, along with important lessons handed down from generation to generation about best practices for that culture. These are the memes that helped that culture survive and thrive over centuries.
- Any of the above options, but from inside a computer simulation for some reason.
metaculture puts it all on #5. By far the best odds of the bunch. You can bet your life on it.
Weighing the Odds Versus Placing Your Bet
You can compare the classic existential crisis to a gambler who is too busy weighing the odds to ever commit to a bet. It is rumination. It is the inability to form convictions about the nature of reality and meaning of existence that keeps us from fully embracing life. It is our convictions that motivate us to become better people, and the belief system we adopt is what gives us those convictions.
If you never place your bet, you may never lose, but you can also never win.
Pick a Philosophy. Any Philosophy.
Developing meaning, developing your self-awareness, connecting with your spirituality, enhancing your ethics, and building community, are all encouraged by almost every philosophical school of thought. Whether you're into Stoicism, Existentialism, Skepticism, Positivism, Communism, Postmodernism, or any other -ism, just pick one that resonates with you and work to embody its ideals. Works with religion too if that's more your thing. The key thing is to have a belief system you identify with, that gives you meaning, and a sense of moral direction.
Here's the full list of philosophies to choose from.
The Ethics of Gambling
On a related note, gambling is actually a pretty bad way to get your dopamine. It's rather addictive, but unlike most addictions where you exchange money for a thing and that thing gives you dopamine, gambling cuts out the middle man in the money to dopamine chain.
Modern sports betting apps are one of the most popular ways of gambling, and the rise of the manosphere was built on the money that sports betting apps have pumped into podcast marketing. However, these apps are designed to leverage your fan loyalties and push prop bets and parlays that have much worse odds than our brains are able to estimate. The apps are designed to manipulate you psychologically towards forming an addiction to making the worst possible bets. If you refuse to follow their incentives and consistently make good bets, they simply kick you off.
The podcast Against the Rules Season 4 takes an in-depth look at how these companies have taken advantage of unsuspecting fans and state-level politicians to ensure these apps are in the pocket of everyone with a phone, ready to take your money in exchange for false hope and addiction at a moment's notice.
Gambling isn't so much immoral as it is incredibly stupid, and the way it is marketed to people is exploitative at least and full-on grift at worst. In a free society it shouldn't be illegal, but it should be much more taboo than it is currently, and our education systems should include more classes on probability and statistics so people fully understand why they shouldn't. Restrictions on how gambling is marketed, especially to kids, are just as valid as restrictions on marketing drugs, alcohol, and other addictive things.
RIP Kenny Rogers
One of the greats.